Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

Pick - Prop

Francisco Lindor has scored runs consistently for the Mets. He’s come across the plate in 82 of 146 games (56%) thus far, including 11 of his last 13 and 21 of 27 in the last calendar month. Given those percentages, we’re getting pretty good odds for Lindor to score again on Friday night against the Phillies. Of course, those odds are factoring in Aaron Nola on the mound for Philadelphia.The right-hander is 12-7 with a 3.41 ERA on the season, including a complete-game shutout against the Mets back in May, but Nola is coming off allowing five runs (four earned) in just 4 2/3 innings against the Marlins last time out.

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Ryan Gilbert - Pick Made 5 hrs, 12 min ago.

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Pick - Moneyline

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Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 2 hrs, 29 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Gleyber Torres homered on Thursday against the Boston Red Sox, and the ball was hit so hard that it would have been a home run in only 1 out of 30 parks, as Torres took full advantage of the short porch in right field. Hey, a home run is a home run for confidence, and Torres is someone who can get red hot with the long ball for a stretch. The Yankees' second baseman will face Tanner Houck on Friday, a pitcher he has homered off in the past, and the wind is blowing out to the pull side at 7 mph for Torres at Yankee Stadium. The pricing on Torres’ home run prop is all over the place, with some sportsbooks as short as +700. With a +950 available at bet365, I’m placing the bet because projections suggest Torres should be priced closer to +665.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 6 hrs, 42 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Naylor is slugging .462 and is tied for sixth in the majors with 101 RBIs through 138 games. Naylor performs better at home where he slugs .506 and he slugs .482 with the platoon advantage which he will have today against Zack Littell. Littell has a solid 3.89 ERA but his underlying metrics paint a different picture. He's in the bottom 10th percentile in ground ball rate and the bottom 25th percentile in barrel rate while posting an xERA of 4.51. That number is more in line with how Littell performs on the road where he has a 4.91 ERA with an OBA of .319 through 12 starts.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 53 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

SpencerSchwellenbach’s xwOBA has risen to .320 in that span while his OPS sits at .750, a below-average number that puts him in company with the likes of Erick Fedde and Bailey Falter over that same span. Mookie Betts has cleared this line at a ridiculous 64% clip on the road this season. Hitting behind on-base machine Shohei Ohtani and in front of Freddie Freeman, he's in prime position to clear this line with one good swing any time he steps up to the plate.

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Todd Cordell - Pick Made 6 hrs, 24 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Rooker is slashing .298/.370/.580 while racking up 76 runs and 102 RBIs through 130 games. Rooker performs better on the road where he slugs .612 and he's currently in great form, slashing .397/.438/.707 with 14 RBIs over the last 15 days. Rooker will have the platoon advantage today against Garrett Crochet. The southpaw was one of the top pitchers in the AL for the first half of the year but has an ugly 7.09 ERA with an OBA of .310 in eight starts since the All-Star break. Crochet also hasn't pitched deeper than four innings in any of those starts which means that Rooker will see plenty of Chicago's bullpen which is 29th in the majors in ERA (4.87).

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 56 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Garrett Crochet only has a couple of starts left and the team is handling him with kid gloves. He has not thrown more than 57 pitches in four straight starts and has not recorded more than 12 outs either. There is nothing to make me believe he is going to top that workload today vs. the Oakland Athletics. The Chicago White Sox starter has a K prop of 5.5 that is still plus money to the Under. If he is only going to get 12 outs, are 50% of them coming via the punchout? Likely not with a 35% K rate on the season. He has also been hit hard with a 7.09 ERA since the All-Star break, spanning 26+ innings. His last outing lasted just six total outs. Everything has to go right for this Over to hit, and Oakland isn't even a Top-10 K% team over the last 30 days.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 7 hrs, 30 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Ober has an xERA of 3.28 with an OBA of .200 through 27 starts this year. Tonight, Ober faces a mediocre Cincinnati lineup that is 26th in the majors in batting average (.231). The Reds have been even worse lately, batting just .181 and plating 1.75 runs per game over their last eight contests. Ober has allowed fewer than 4.5 hits in 10 of 13 starts since the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.85 ERA with an OBA of .159 during that span.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 4 hrs, 50 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

This is a first here in Edges and Angles, but Austin Gomber is coming off the paternity list after he and his wife welcomed their third child to the family. Thanks to some inflated numbers because of Coors Field, some Unders are looking good tonight vs. the Chicago Cubs. I'm not looking to hit his Under 15.5 outs, as he has topped this number in five straight starts and has a 3.00 ERA over that stretch, but he could remain sharp today running on adrenaline. His Under 3.5 earned runs is paying a solid +115 and he projects for 3.47 runs across 81 pitches. He has elite command — which always helps in this market — and since he has been off for eight days, he could have a shorter leash. I don't usually back pitchers at Coors, but the baby news has created a few angles here with the most objective being the extra time off for the Colorado Rockies hurler.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 7 hrs, 32 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

The Chicago Cubs outfielder will be playing at Coors Field on Friday night against left-handed starting pitcher Austin Gomber, with the wind blowing out to left field at 10.3 mph. Gomber has given up 27 home runs this season, 20 of which have come against right-handed batters. Happ, a switch-hitter, has hit seven home runs against southpaws this season in only 122 at-bats. The rest of the market is trading Happ at +350, but FanDuel is offering a rogue +420 price point. This rogue price significantly increases our edge, as the projections price Happ at +305 to hit a home run on Friday.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 8 hrs, 18 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Los Angeles Angels starter Samuel Aldegheri threw 90 pitches in his last start and racked up seven punchouts. This is a lefty that had a whopping 133 Ks over 95 innings in the minors this year. He has good stuff and a long leash, but books are pricing his K prop with a total of 3.5. I love this Over and there is room for more than four Ks here. This isn't the best K matchup, but the Houston Astros have a similar strikeout rate as the Rangers, who stuck out seven times vs. the southpaw. This has ladder potential up to seven at +850. This Over 3.5 at -105 is a strong play, so let's add the 5+ at +210 for a half unit, too. It's just his third start in the MLB, so books are slow to pick up on his potential workload.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 7 hrs, 28 min ago.

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Pick - Moneyline

Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled through six starts, posting a 5.83 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse, which puts Arizona in a bad spot considering the Milwaukee Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta. Milwaukee's de facto ace ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. Peralta also enters this matchup in good form, going 3-1 over his past five starts with a 2.33 ERA, and the Brewers also have a stronger bullpen for the later stages of the game.

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Tony Sartori - Pick Made 5 hrs, 42 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Rhys Hoskins let me down in the game at Oracle Park on Wednesday, where he didn’t hit a home run in a game that featured 15 runs. But that’s not stopping me from going right back to him on Friday night. Hoskins will be facing another left-handed pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Arizona Diamondbacks. If Rodriguez gives up a home run, it’s most likely going to a right-handed batter, and Hoskins has historically crushed lefties. Although it’s a small sample size, right-handed batters have a .300 AVG and .856 OPS against Rodriguez this season. The projections price Hoskins at +370 to hit a home run on Friday, but we can buy this at +500 on FanDuel.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 7 hrs, 15 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Ketel Marte will be facing Milwaukee Brewers' right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta on Friday. While Peralta is a strikeout pitcher who has had a solid season, make no mistake—he isn’t afraid to give up home runs along the way. Peralta has allowed 25 home runs this season, which is tied for 12th in all of baseball. I’m not going to lie, the splits don’t exactly suggest betting on Marte. Peralta has given up more home runs to right-handed batters, while Marte has absolutely crushed left-handed pitchers. However, if FanDuel is pricing Marte, who has 31 home runs this season, a dollar higher than the rest of the market, I’ll hit the button. The projections have Marte at +406 to hit a home run on Friday, so we have a nice edge with the +560 at FanDuel.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 7 hrs, 30 min ago.

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Pick - Prop

Jacob deGrom has been off all season as he has been recovering from Tommy John surgery, but will make his season debut tonight vs. the Seattle Mariners. Her only threw 49 pitches in his last start, where he went 12 outs and struck out five. He might get to 60 pitches, but that has to be it. His K prop is sitting at 6.5 and although it's the Mariners, that's a lot of Ks if he is only going 12 to 15 outs. Seattle has been known as the worst K% team in baseball but it has improved those numbers over the last 30 days, ranking ninth at 25%. The Texas Rangers are basically out of the playoffs so there is no need to push the pricey right-hander, who has struggled to stay on the mound over the last half decade. He has not thrown more than 100 innings since 2019. It will be sweaty, but the Under is the right side in his debut.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 7 hrs, 27 min ago.

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